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Economic update

U.S. GDP is expected to increase 6.6% in CY2021 and 4.1% in CY2022. Consumers are leading growth, with spending increasingly directed toward the reopening service sector. With retail inventories relative to sales at historic lows, business-to-business trends are favorable. Restocking demand and continued strong business investment will support industrial activity and trade. We expect industrial production growth of 6.0% in CY2021 followed by 4.5% in CY2022.

From a global perspective, trade and industrial production, led by China and the rest of emerging Asia, have fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. World real GDP growth is forecasted at 5.7% in CY2021 and 4.1% in CY2022. Growth will be driven by the release of pent-up demand for services. Investment demand and inventory restocking will support continued growth in manufacturing and trade. The timeline for the end of the pandemic remains a source of uncertainty for the outlook as vaccination, case rates, and the development of variant strains vary significantly across countries.

CY2020 CY2021* CY2022*

GDP Forecast
U.S. (3.5) % 6.6 % 4.1 %
Global (3.6) % 5.7 % 4.1 %

U.S. Growth
Industrial Production (7.2) % 6.0 % 4.5 %
Consumer Spending (3.9) % 7.9 % 4.1 %


Certain statements herein may be considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management’s views with respect to future events and underlying assumptions. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; economic conditions in the global markets in which we operate; anti-trade measures and additional changes in international trade policies and relations; the impact of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union and the terms of their future trading relationship; changes in fuel prices or currency exchange rates; the impact of any international conflicts or terrorist activities; and other factors. We do not undertake or assume any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.