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Economic update

Real economic growth has moderated. U.S. GDP is expected to increase 1.6% in CY2022 and 1.4% in CY2023. While a tight labor market is benefiting households, inflation has been a headwind to real consumer spending. Measures of consumer and business sentiment have eased, and inventory stocking and capital spending have slowed. We expect industrial production growth of 4.3% in CY2022, supported by energy investment and continued recovery in the automobile industry. The outlook remains uncertain with inflation still well above normal.

World real GDP is expected to grow 2.7% in CY2022 and 2.4% in CY2023. Growth will be driven by the release of pent-up demand for services. As in the U.S., inflation is a headwind for global consumption and sentiment. Global manufacturing and trade growth have eased. Supply chain pressures have improved but remain elevated. The conflict in Ukraine compounds the challenges the world is facing from the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, and inflation.

CY2021 CY2022* CY2023*

GDP Forecast

U.S. 5.7 % 1.6 % 1.4 %
Global 5.8 % 2.7 % 2.4 %

U.S. Growth

Industrial Production 4.9 % 4.3 % 1.8 %
Consumer Spending 7.9 % 2.3 % 1.4 %


Certain statements herein may be considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management’s views with respect to future events and underlying assumptions. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, economic and labor conditions in the global markets in which we operate; anti-trade measures and additional changes in international trade policies and relations; the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; changes in fuel prices or currency exchange rates; the effect of any international conflicts or terrorist activities, including as a result of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine; and other factors which can be found in our press releases and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake or assume any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.