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Economic update

U.S. GDP is expected to increase 2.8% in CY2022 and 2.2% in CY2023. Consumer spending growth should tilt toward services as the economy continues to recover from pandemic disruptions. Business-to-business trends are favorable as inventory rebuilding is underway and firms invest in new equipment. We expect industrial production growth of 4.8% in CY2022, supported by restocking demand and capital spending. Labor shortages combined with ongoing supply chain challenges and the spike in commodity prices related to the conflict in Ukraine are putting upward pressure on inflation in the U.S. and internationally.

World real GDP growth is expected to grow 3.1% in CY2022 and 3.0% in CY2023. Growth will be driven by the release of pent-up demand for services, while investment demand and inventory restocking support global manufacturing and trade. Supply chain pressures from increased COVID-19 restrictions in China are a risk to the near-term outlook. The conflict in Ukraine is both a human tragedy and an event that compounds the challenges the world is facing from the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, and inflation.

CY2021 CY2022* CY2023*

GDP Forecast

U.S. 5.7 % 2.8 % 2.2 %
Global 5.8 % 3.1 % 3.0 %

U.S. Growth

Industrial Production 5.5 % 4.8 % 2.3 %
Consumer Spending 7.9 % 3.0 % 2.1 %


Certain statements herein may be considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management’s views with respect to future events and underlying assumptions. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, economic and labor conditions in the global markets in which we operate; anti-trade measures and additional changes in international trade policies and relations; the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; changes in fuel prices or currency exchange rates; the effect of any international conflicts or terrorist activities, including as a result of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine; and other factors. We do not undertake or assume any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.