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Economic update

U.S. GDP is expected to increase 5.8% in CY2021 and 4.1% in CY2022. Consumer spending is being increasingly directed toward services, though recent declines in confidence amid a surge in COVID-19 cases have added near-term risk. Business-to-business trends are solid as inventories remain lean relative to sales. We expect industrial production growth of 5.7% in CY2021 and 4.5% in CY2022, supported by restocking demand and capital spending. Ongoing supply chain stresses suggest the restocking cycle could stretch out longer than otherwise. Constraints in both product and labor markets continue to put upward pressure on inflation.

World real GDP growth is forecasted at 5.8% in CY2021 and 4.3% in CY2022. Growth will be driven by the release of pent-up demand for services, while investment demand and inventory restocking support global manufacturing and trade. The path out of the pandemic remains a source of uncertainty as spread of new COVID-19 variants increases risks to the outlook.

CY2020 CY2021* CY2022*

GDP Forecast

U.S. (3.4) % 5.8 % 4.1 %
Global (3.5) % 5.8 % 4.3 %

U.S. Growth

Industrial Production (7.2) % 5.7 % 4.5 %
Consumer Spending (3.8) % 7.8 % 3.8 %


Certain statements herein may be considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management’s views with respect to future events and underlying assumptions. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, economic and labor conditions in the global markets in which we operate; anti-trade measures and additional changes in international trade policies and relations; the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; changes in fuel prices or currency exchange rates; the impact of any international conflicts or terrorist activities; and other factors. We do not undertake or assume any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.