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Economic Update

November 1, 2019

U.S. GDP is expected to increase 2.3% in CY2019 and 1.8% in CY2020. A tight labor market is supporting wages and incomes, and the economy continues to benefit from tax reform. Business sentiment has been impacted by uncertainty around trade policy. Industrial production growth should slow to 0.9% in CY2019 after a robust 3.9% gain last year.

Global economic growth has slowed as manufacturing output has flagged and trade has declined. World real GDP growth is forecasted at 2.5% in CY2019 and CY2020. The potential of a hard Brexit and escalating trade barriers represent downside risks to the economic outlook. Given the importance of access to global supply chains to U.S. competitiveness and jobs, it is important to have a policy environment that encourages free trade.

CY2018 CY2019 CY2020
GDP Forecast
U.S. 2.9 % 2.3 % 1.8 %
Global 3.1 % 2.5 % 2.5 %
U.S. Growth
Industrial Production 3.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Consumer Spending 3.0 % 2.6 % 2.2 %

All percentages are shown on a calendar year-over-year basis. Historical estimates are provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). For more information, please visit

Certain statements herein are considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management's views with respect to future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

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