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Economic Update

February 1, 2019

U.S. GDP is expected to increase 2.5% in CY2019 and 2.1% in CY2020. The labor market continues to improve and support income growth, while sentiment measures have weakened from high levels. Lower oil prices, if sustained, could act as a drag on U.S. capital investment, offsetting some of the benefit of lower prices to consumers. Tax policy remains supportive of growth. Our industrial production growth forecast stands at 2.7% for CY2019 after a 4% gain in the prior year.

Global economic growth is slowing as growth eases in the Eurozone, China, and other large economies. World real GDP growth is forecasted at 2.9% in CY2019 and 2.8% in CY2020. Given the importance of access to global supply chains to U.S. competitiveness and jobs, it is important to have a policy environment that encourages free trade. Uncertainty over trade policy represents a downside risk to the economic outlook, especially as global trade growth slows.


CY2018 CY2019 CY2020
U.S. GDP 2.9 % 2.5 % 2.1 %
U.S. Industrial Production 4.0 % 2.7 % 2.1 %
World GDP 3.1 % 2.9 % 2.8 %

All percentages are shown on a calendar year-over-year basis. Historical estimates are provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). For more information, please visit www.bea.gov.

Certain statements herein are considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management's views with respect to future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

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