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Economic update

U.S. GDP is expected to increase 5.6% in CY2021 and 4.1% in CY2022. Household incomes remain strong, though the latest surge in cases of the omicron variant of COVID-19 could dampen near-term spending growth. Business-to-business trends are favorable as inventory rebuilding is underway. We expect industrial production growth of 5.6% in CY2021 and 4.7% in CY2022, supported by restocking demand and capital spending. Ongoing supply chain stresses suggest the restocking cycle could stretch out longer than otherwise. Constraints in both product and labor markets continue to put upward pressure on inflation.

World real GDP growth is forecasted at 5.6% in CY2021 and 4.2% in CY2022. Growth will be driven by the release of pent-up demand for services, while investment demand and inventory restocking support global manufacturing and trade. Risks to the outlook include the future path of the pandemic, supply chain stresses, and policy responses during recovery.

CY2021* CY2022* CY2023*

GDP Forecast

U.S. 5.6 % 4.1 % 2.4 %
Global 5.6 % 4.2 % 3.1 %

U.S. Growth

Industrial Production 5.6 % 4.7 % 2.6 %
Consumer Spending 8.0 % 3.7 % 2.4 %


Certain statements herein may be considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management’s views with respect to future events and underlying assumptions. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, economic and labor conditions in the global markets in which we operate; anti-trade measures and additional changes in international trade policies and relations; the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; changes in fuel prices or currency exchange rates; the impact of any international conflicts or terrorist activities; and other factors. We do not undertake or assume any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.