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Economic Update

October 30, 2017

U.S. GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 2.2% in CY2017 from 1.5% in CY2016. Consumption growth is stable, investment and inventories are recovering, better growth outside the U.S. is supporting exports, and financial conditions are favorable.
 
Manufacturing output, which was flat for most of CY2015 and CY2016 due to the strong dollar, weak capital spending and an inventory correction, has picked up momentum. Industrial production growth should improve to 1.6% in CY2017 after a 1.2% decline in CY2016 as investment increases and the drag from inventories fades. Given the near-perfect correlation between fixed business investment and employment growth, it is important to have a policy environment that encourages capital spending and free trade.
 
World GDP growth is forecasted at 2.9% in CY2017. Global growth has become broader-based with solid improvement in global manufacturing and capital expenditures supporting strong global trade volume growth. Risks to the outlook include geopolitical tensions and the potential for economic policy missteps.


CY2016 CY2017 CY2018
U.S. GDP 1.5 %2.2 % 2.5 %
U.S. Industrial Production -1.2 % 1.6 % 2.5 %
World GDP 2.3 % 2.9 % 2.9 %

All percentages are shown on a calendar year-over-year basis. Historical estimates are provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). For more information, please visit www.bea.gov.

Certain statements herein are considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management's views with respect to future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

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