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Economic Update

April 2, 2018

U.S. GDP is expected to grow 2.9% in CY2018, up from 2.3% in CY2017. Business and consumer sentiment remain favorable. Our forecast reflects the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which should materially boost the U.S. economy by increasing disposable incomes and incentivizing capital spending.

Industrial production growth should accelerate to 3.4% in CY2018 from 1.6% last year. Full expensing of equipment investment and permanent corporate tax cuts make the U.S. tax code globally competitive and will support greater capital expenditure, which provides upside to industrial activity. Given the importance of access to global supply chains to U.S. competitiveness and jobs, it is important to have a policy environment that encourages free trade.

World real GDP growth is forecasted at 3.2% in CY2018, after estimated growth of 3.1% in CY2017. The synchronous global upturn across regions and sectors is supporting global trade flows. With U.S. tax policy promoting stronger U.S. demand, another year of healthy global growth is expected in CY2019. Risks to the outlook include geopolitical tensions and the potential for economic and trade policy missteps.


CY2017 CY2018 CY2019
U.S. GDP 2.3 % 2.9 % 2.6 %
U.S. Industrial Production 1.6 % 3.4 % 2.6 %
World GDP 3.1 % 3.2 % 3.1 %

All percentages are shown on a calendar year-over-year basis. Historical estimates are provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). For more information, please visit www.bea.gov.

Certain statements herein are considered forward-looking statements, such as statements relating to management's views with respect to future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

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